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☆ After buying an oversold market last week, here are 3 things to watch next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Even with a modest bounce Friday, U.S. crude prices fell nearly 9% this week — their worst weekly performance since March. US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yield year to date performance Here are three major developments to watch in the week ahead. September headline PPI is expected to rise 0.3% month over month and 1.6% year over year. As for CPI, economists are looking for a September headline reading of up 0.3% month over month and 3.6% year over year. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Dow, —, We'll, Wells Fargo, Banks, we'll, Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley, Wells, JPMorgan Chase, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Daniel Acker Organizations: Labor Department, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Companies, CPI, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCo, Air, DAL, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Commercial Metals, Infosys Tech, SMART, JPMorgan, Citigroup, PNC Financial, PNC, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, BlackRock

☆ Wall Street sees the market's bumpy ride continuing in the 4th quarter. Here are the risks in store
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Many investors expect that could be the capitulation event equities need to bottom out before rebounding. "If you get down to five and a quarter all hell's gonna break loose," Rob Ginsberg, managing director at Wolfe Research. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has spiked sharply to about 4.8% this week, about 1 whole percentage point above where it was in mid-July at around 3.7%. In fact, it won't take much for the positive narrative to start to take hold in markets, Hogan said. Hogan anticipates the S & P 500 could rise to 4,800 by year end, about 13% above where it is currently.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Fitch, Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ginsberg doesn't, You'll, Ginsberg, Riley Financial's Art Hogan, they'll, Read, Hogan, Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Katie Stockton, Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier, Jeffrey Hirsch, I'm, Hirsch Organizations: Dow Jones, Treasury, Wolfe Research, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, CNBC Pro's, Supply, Bank of America's Locations: Saudi Arabia

☆ Barclays says rates will keep going higher until there is a deeper stock sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The steep decline in the bond market — and the accompanying move up in interest rates — will only stop if the sell-off in stocks accelerates, according to Barclays. "Despite the breathtaking sell-off in longer rates, we do not see a clear catalyst to stem the bleeding. Absent that, there is no sustained bond stabilization and, given how risk assets are finally responding to bonds, no stabilization in risk assets, either. Traders often look to the Federal Reserve in times of bond market stress, as the central bank has in the past stepped in to calm the Treasury market. "The only way the Fed could help longer yields is by hiking so aggressively that markets are convinced a recession is imminent and rush to buy longer rates.

Persons: Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Rajadhyaksha, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Treasury, Traders, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Bonds, oil and the dollar: What investors need to know about these 3 headwinds for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | In Kevinstankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

We're talking about this year's rise in bond yields, oil prices and the dollar — all at the time same. Nevertheless, bond yields, oil prices and the dollar always have far-reaching implications for the stock market. "The higher yields, that's what's been pressuring the equity market," Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel said Monday on CNBC. In early September, the two countries announced their supply cuts would extend through year-end, a surprise decision that added upward pressure on oil prices. The picture is less clear-cut when considering the impact higher oil prices can have on consumers and non-energy companies.

Persons: —, what's, Jeremy Siegel, Brent, WTI, It's, Siegel, Wharton's Siegel, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, U.S, multiweek United Auto Workers, General Motors, Club, Ford, Wharton, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Dow Jones, West, Brent, Natural Resources, Coterra Energy, Consumers, JPMorgan, Procter, Gamble, Apple, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, Ukraine, West Texas, Saudi Arabia, Russia, tailwind, headwind

☆ Stocks enter October in a 2-month correction as traders question the economy's resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2023 The median stock in the index, though, is nearly 16% off its 52-week high and is flat year to date. The S & P also went nine straight sessions through Wednesday recording a lower low than the day before, something that had only happened a dozen times over the prior century, says SentimenTrader.com. But the raw numbers say the S & P 500 has dropped from 19.7-times the next 12 months' projection to 17.9-times in two months. The equal-weight S & P 500 is at 14.3-times forward earnings; it bottomed last October just under 13. The S & P 500's annualized total returns for the last three, five and ten years are all between 10-12%, slightly above the long-term average.

Persons: Bonds, Friday's, Johnson, handicapping, shutdowns Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Target, American Express, Investment, CNN Locations: lockstep

☆ You can tell investors are pretty scared right now by the funds seeing the biggest inflows
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Trading data shows that retail investors are focused on funds that generate income and are relatively insulated from the moves in interest rates, the firm said in a note on Thursday. "As bond prices continue to drop we've seen a surge in Treasury ETF purchases from the retail community over the past week. Vanda also pointed out that gold stocks and ETFs have also been climbing in September, another sign of a defensive mindset for investors. Investors have been buying stocks, too, but in the form of broad market ETFs such as the SPDR S & P 500 Trust (SPY) rather than individual stocks, according to Vanda. "When the stock market is performing poorly, retail investors tend to favor these products because the equity market tends to rise in the long term, and as a result, the retracement offers a 'safe' upside potential.

Persons: Vanda, peters Organizations: Vanda Research, Market, Investors, Treasury

☆ Carnage in the bond market again with benchmark ETF down 10% on year to lowest since 2011
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury yields are spiking to levels not seen in over 15 years, causing sell-offs in many of the market's biggest bond funds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed at $89.18 on Monday, which was its lowest close since Feb. 10, 2011, according to FactSet. The Fed's target interest rate is already above 5%, as are short-term Treasury yields. But the long-term decline in bond yields began roughly two decades before that. That trend may finally have reached its turning point, Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, said Tuesday on CNBC's " Squawk Box ."

Persons: Bruno Braizinha, Braizinha, Goldman Sachs, Cecilia Mariotti, Mariotti, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Jonathan Krinsky, Jim Grant, Grant, BTIG's Krinsky Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, iShares, Aggregate Bond, Treasury, Bank of America, Barclays, Federal

☆ These 5 dividend stocks are safe, generate large income and analysts say buy them
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But some stocks may offer a method for investors to weather the rising rate environment and find some safety. Treasury yields have marched higher in recent weeks, with the yield on both the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes hitting levels not seen in more than 15 years. The company's debt-to-equity ratio sits at 42%. Energy companies Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips also made the list, offering dividend yield of 3.1% and 3.8%, respectively. Exxon also offers the lowest debt-to-equity ratio of the group at roughly 21%.

Persons: Exxon's, FANG, Medtronic Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, Diamondback Energy, Energy, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Exxon, Diamondback

Since the central bank kicked off its policy-tightening campaign in March 2022 — boosting interest rates 11 times — income investors have benefited from higher yields on Treasurys, money market funds and certificates of deposit. "From here, even if rates go higher you are locking in some really good income." If you're willing to sacrifice a little bit of liquidity, select banks will pay even higher yields. Drivers of those increases include higher-for-longer interest rates, and competition from Treasurys and money market funds, Graseck added. Money market funds Rates on money market funds have also jumped substantially since the rate-hiking campaign started.

Persons: Greg McBride, reinvest, US2Y, Treasurys, Sameer Samana, Sallie Mae, Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck, Graseck, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Nick Wells Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Savings, Synchrony, Bread Financial, Investment Company Locations: maturities, Wells Fargo

☆ The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. What it means for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2011. What's more, higher yields are typically a negative for tech and growth stocks — this year's best-performing group — as they lessen the value of their promised future earnings. Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish said Monday he expects the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.25%, citing risks to the bond market on inflation expectations. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury yield YTD "The market has been consistently underpricing the risk of additional rate hikes and overpricing the speed of rate cuts," Kalish wrote.

Persons: Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Strategas, Chris Verrone, 133bps, Verrone, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach, it's, Tom Essaye, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chris Hayes Organizations: Treasury, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Now is the time to buy longer-dated bonds as 10-year Treasury yields push near 2007 highs, Schwab says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With 10-year Treasury yields at their highest since shortly before the financial crisis, it's a good time to add duration to your fixed income portfolio, according to Charles Schwab fixed income strategist Cooper Howard. "If I were a betting man, I think the odds favor moving lower rather than higher," Howard said. Even if there is more upside in yields ahead, Howard still thinks the risk/reward looks attractive on longer-term bonds right now. US10Y YTD mountain US 10-year Treasury Where to add duration depends on your risk tolerance, according to Howard. "This is why we still maintain a favorable view toward extending duration and view the 10-year Treasury yields above 4% as an opportunity to add duration exposure," Alvarado wrote.

Persons: Charles Schwab, Cooper Howard, Howard, Jerome Powell, Wells Fargo, Luis Alvarado, He's, Alvarado, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, Investors, Treasury, Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, Bloomberg U.S, Corporate, Treasury Bond Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Surging bond yields add to pressure for Powell's big speech Friday
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

All eyes will be trained on the central bank leader when he makes his annual address Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "Powell will need to choose whether to accept or push back against the 'higher-for-longer' narrative at Jackson Hole on Friday." Bond yields are a helpful guide to inflation as they represent a measure of where markets think growth, policy and prices are heading. That has come with one quarter-point Fed rate increase along with rising expectations that the economy may be able to avoid a much-predicted recession. This year's Jackson Hole symposium topic is "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Jackson, Hollenhorst, Steven Blitz Organizations: Federal, Kansas City, Citigroup, Fed, TS Lombard Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Kansas

☆ Investors are jumping back into short-term bond funds as rates rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The recent jump in market interest rates may have caught some ETF investors off guard, and they are now shifting back into short-term bond funds that can better withstand rising yields. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of price, and long-term bonds see their prices hit harder when rates rise. As a result, investors are shifting into short-term bond funds. The following short-term bond ETFs were in the top 10 for net inflows over the past week, according to FactSet. The upward move for bond yields has been particularly acute in the long end of the yield curve.

Persons: Claudio Irigoyen, Fitch, Irigoyen, TLT Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ Buy Treasurys now. There may not be a better chance for a long while at these high rates, Wells Fargo says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors who want to lock in high rates on longer-term Treasurys may want to act sooner rather than later, according to Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The 10-year Treasury is currently yielding around 4.2%. "We think 10-year Treasury yields in the 4% to 4.5% zone may represent a fixed-income opportunity for investors who have been seeking higher yields over the course of the last 15 years," he added. "It makes sense that investors would require a higher yield when purchasing government debt in the wake of these announcements," he said. In addition to 10-year Treasurys, the bank has also lowered its equities allocation and "parked" those funds in short-term Treasurys, getting yields over 5% in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month maturities, Wren wrote.

Persons: Scott Wren, Wren, Wells Organizations: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Treasury, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ 'A short-term glitch:' Wall Street pros shrug off the effect of Fitch's downgrade on markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points Wednesday after the downgrade as traders weighed the move. US10Y 1Y mountain 10-year yield 1-year However, Wall Street strategists mostly took the downgrade in stride. The S & P 500's 17% rally this year and the Nasdaq Composite's 33% advance had some traders worrying that equities have surged "too far, too fast." Stovall's S & P 500 year-end target is at 4,575 . Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius said Tuesday the downgrade will have "little direct impact" on financial markets.

Persons: Fitch, Janet Yellen, Sam Stovall, Stovall's, Wells Fargo's Christopher Harvey, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Steven Zeng, Management's Yung, Yu Ma, Ma, CFRA's Stovall, Deutsche Bank's Zeng, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S ., Fitch, AAA, Dow Jones, Treasury, Street, Nasdaq, Deutsche, BMO Locations: Washington, U.S, Tuesday's

☆ Stick with Treasurys even after Fitch downgrades U.S., UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Government bonds are still a sound investment, according to UBS. Fitch attributed the downgrade Tuesday to an "erosion of governance," referring to political standoffs around the debt limit, as well as growing debt levels. The firm expects government debt to reach 118.4% of gross domestic product by 2025. US10Y US2Y YTD line U.S. 2 year and 10 year yields Bond yields move opposite to their prices. She noted that the added benefit of having U.S. Treasurys is they offer the potential for capital appreciation if investors become concerned about slowing growth.

Persons: Fitch, Marcelli, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, ., AAA, UBS Global Wealth Management, Treasury, Federal Locations: Americas

☆ Get a risk-free 5% return as the 2-year Treasury yield hits a 16-year high. Here’s how to buy one
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Income-seeking investors are primed to pick up a risk-free return exceeding 5% now that the yield on the 2-year Treasury has spiked to highs last seen in 2007. Indeed, the yield on the 2-year Treasury – which is especially sensitive to Fed policy – leapt to 5.12%, its highest level since June 15, 2007. The rate on the 10-year Treasury also jumped over 4% at its highest point of the day. How to buy in To purchase Treasurys directly from the U.S. government, you can set up an account on TreasuryDirect.gov . If inflation outpaces the yield you're earning, it could erode the real rate of return earned on these notes.

Persons: Dow Jones, –, Luis Alvarado, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Nick Wells Organizations: Treasury, Traders, Private, Federal Reserve, U.S ., . Locations: Wells Fargo, Treasurys

☆ Stocked up on short-term T-bills? Here’s why it might be time to buy longer-term bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Short-term Treasury bills have garnered investors' attention as yields pop amid the Federal Reserve's rate hiking campaign and debt ceiling tensions in Washington. This doesn't necessarily mean it's time to cut bait on your short-term bond holdings, however. Issues with longer duration are likely to see greater price fluctuation in response to changes in interest rates. The inverted yield curve also resulted in higher yields for short-term issues, but sharp price declines. Some investors built ladders — that is, a portfolio of bonds with different maturities — to take advantage of those higher yields.

Persons: Paul Olmsted, Bonds, Olmsted, we've, Brenna McLoughlin, Kevin Brady, Callie Cox, Cox Organizations: Morningstar, Treasury, Wealthstream Advisors, Wealthspire Advisors Locations: Washington

☆ BlackRock’s Rieder highlights a fresh worry for investors beyond the Fed’s expected rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Jason Gewirtz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

BlackRock's Rick Rieder predicts the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday and then stop. Tuesday kicks off the Fed's two-day meeting, which will culminate in a rate decision announced at 2 p.m. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee has been hiking rates since March 2022 in a bid to cool higher prices. "I don't think there's tangible pressure on the U.S. economy," Rieder said. Rieder is confident in the overall market, but he is in the camp that "the economy can move into a technical recession."

☆ Markets and the economy survived a tough first quarter, but it's not going to get any easier
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Despite peaks and valleys, stocks closed the first quarter on an up note, with the S & P 500 rallying more than 7% and the tech-fueled Nasdaq soaring about 16%. .SPX .DJI YTD line S & P 500 gains so far in 2023 Indeed, the market has lived through a lifetime of scary headlines in the first three months of 2023. Despite repeated protestations from Fed officials that they are taking the higher-for-longer approach on interest rates, markets still expect cuts. AAPL .SPX YTD mountain Apple compared to the S & P 500 Only five of the 11 S & P 500 sectors are positive for the year, despite the substantial rally for the index. The net profit margin for the S & P 500 also is expected to edge lower to 11.2%.

☆ Bonds are back this year after one of their worst stretches ever
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Bonds are rebounding in 2023 following one of their worst years ever as the asset class reclaims its function as an effective hedge for stocks. "Bonds are acting like bonds again," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. What's more, because bonds tend to rally during a recession as benchmark rates decline, Devereux said she recommends focusing on high-quality fixed income including U.S. Treasurys, agency mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds. Within fixed income, she also recommended investors stick to bonds with AAA or AA ratings, saying investors should look for risk in equities rather than lower-rated bonds. "While returns for stocks and bonds have been positive so far this year, that stocks and bonds are largely performing well at different times has made the ride smoother for investors," Bolvin said.

☆ BlackRock's Rieder says more volatility could 'play through the financial system'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"My sense is there's still some volatility that's going to play through the financial system." "You've got clearly some additional economic contraction coming from a banking system that is going to pull back on some lending." I think spreads got too tight and I think the market was a little overzealous in all assets," Rieder said. Prior to the failure of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank, Rieder had anticipated the yield would range between 3.50% and 4.25%. Rieder expects the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point and could hike again by another 25 basis points before stopping.

☆ A major inflation report and fallout from Silicon Valley Bank hang over markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

February's consumer inflation report should be a big driver for markets in the week ahead, as investors watch for continued fallout from the shutdown of SVB Financial Group's Silicon Valley Bank. The consumer price index report on Tuesday is the last major inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's March 21 and 22 meeting. Silicon Valley Bank's troubles overshadowed nearly everything else in markets Thursday and Friday, as investors sought safety in the bond market and sold bank stocks. Those odds had been as high as 70% before the Silicon Valley Bank news began to hit the market. Now inflation data is being watched carefully since a very hot number could mean the Fed will become more aggressive.

☆ The stock market passed a key test in the charts, but another threat looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With the closely watched 10-year Treasury yield below the psychological 4% level, stocks have been able to advance. At the same time, the S & P 500 was at risk of breaking below its 200-day moving average, a momentum indicator. The 200-day is around 3,940, and the S & P 500 was trading comfortably above the key 4,000, at about 4,070 in late morning trading. The S & P touched a low 3,491.58 in October. But Krinsky said it is possible the S & P 500 could still break its lows.

☆ Stocking up on income-paying assets? Here’s how to maximize their tax efficiency
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The calculus of tax optimization Tax optimization begins with the three types of investment accounts available to investors: taxable brokerage accounts, tax-deferred accounts such as 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts, and tax-free accounts like Roth IRAs. Tax-deferred accounts, meanwhile, allow money to accumulate free of taxes – but you're on the hook for income taxes when you take withdrawals. Your individual tax situation will also be a key factor in determining which income assets are best for you and where you should hold them. However, investors in a low tax bracket might be better off going for taxable bonds – which tend to pay higher yields than municipal bonds. Asset location Taxable brokerage accounts are generally a good place to hold T-bills if you're going to tap the money soon.

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